Projecting Average Family Size in Rural India by the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Level: IntermediateType: Document
Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business
University of Pittsburgh
: !The document is from Thomas Saaty's unpublished book "New Mathematics and Measurement for the Physical, Social and Life Sciences" finished in 2004. This is chapter 3 of the book: Projecting Average Family Size in Rural India by the Analytic Hierarchy Process Although the material of this chapter developed in the early 1980’s is old (the fertility rate nowadays for Indian women is 2.7 which is lower for educated families and much higher for provincial women), we believe it is helpful for the reader to see the degree of details involved in order to develop the framework and to perform the exercise. In this study, cultural, economic as well as certain crucial demo graphic factors are considered as the determinants for projecting the average family size in rural India. We use the Analytic Hierarchy Process to analyze influences of the factors which enter implicitly in a rural couple’s decision-making to determine the number of children they want to have as time goes by. We did not attempt to make distinctions among the regional differences in rural India. The outcome projected in our analysis compares favorably with the results of other demographic studies. .