Papers

Terrorism, Patterns for Negotiations: Three Case Studies Through Hierarchies and Holarchies: a Study for the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency

Author(s)
James P. Bennett
Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania
United States
Thomas Saaty
Joseph M. Katz Graduate School of Business
University of Pittsburgh
United States

Publication date: Jan, 1977

Journal: Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania

Abstract: AS PART OF A STUDY FOR THE ARMS CONTROL AND DISARMAMENT AGENCY THE USE OF ANALYTIC HIERARCHIES AND HOLARCHIES WERE FOUND TO BE A USEFUL GUIDE FOR NEGOTIATORS CONFRONTING TERRORISTS HOLDING HOSTAGES. WHEN THIS FINDING WAS APPLIED TO THE MUNICH MASSACRE OF 1972, THE OBJECTIVES AND INFLUENCES OF THE VARIOUS PARTIES INVOLVED IN THE INCIDENT INDICATED THAT THERE IS A RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE TERRORISTS AND THE HOSTAGES, AND BETWEEN THE TERRORISTS AND THE AUTHORITIES. THE INITIAL STEP IN NEGOTIATIONS SHOULD ATTEMPT TO AVOID CONCESSIONS AS LONG AS POSSIBLE IN A COORDINATED EFFORT TO ALTER CRUCIAL SEGMENTS OF THE TERRORISTS' HIERARCHY OF EXPECTATIONS. THE NEGOTIATORS SHOULD ALSO CONSIDER THE POSSIBLE BREAKDOWN OF NEGOTIATIONS AND THE ULTIMATE RESORT TO FORCEFUL INTERVENTION. THE NEGOTIATION PROCESS MAY UNFOLD AS A SERIES OF TRADEOFFS ON TERMS FAVORABLE TO THE AUTHORITIES, BUT SHOULD ALWAYS REMAIN UNDER THE AUTHORITIES' CONTROL OF THE PACE AND PROCEDURE OF THE PROCESS. NEGOTIATORS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE ACTORS, OBJECTIVES, AND OUTCOMES WHICH CONSTITUTE THE PRINCIPAL CATEGORIES OF THE HIERARCHIES. THE PRACTITIONER SHOULD TAILOR THE STRUCTURE OF THE HIERARCHY TO THE PURPOSE OF THE ANALYSIS. FURTHER DISCUSSION CONCERNS THE EIGENVALUE APPROACH TO SETTING PRIORITIES AND THE CONFIGURATIONS OF OBJECTIVES AND INFLUENCE AMONG THE ACTORS. TABULAR DATA AND MATHEMATICAL MODELS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TEXT. A BIBLIOGRAPHY IS PROVIDED. (TWK)

Keywords: Hierarchical system, Arm control

URL: https://www.ojp.gov/ncjrs/virtual-library/abstracts/terrorism-patterns-negotiation-case-study-using-hierarchies-and